El Niño ameaça reduzir superávit global de cacau em 2026/27

[{"selector":"#anim-1d12696c-ec36-4e2d-884e-317e3832b6a1","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5a53ec92-69b9-4eef-9130-8cd02bc284f8","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-87c46d3e-d0d1-44db-b6f0-0c816550b8ba","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f871f7df-f3e6-43ae-a716-b4987b2d2786","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] JESÚS RODRÍGUEZ/Pexels

[{"selector":"#anim-a606f7d5-1fb0-4cb3-a94b-4f943155b5c5","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-eda8cb4d-0db4-4838-b76d-d297eddbc0fc","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2c085071-e4f6-40c2-9b2b-1136f3a6d9dc","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-58a5c667-133e-41f5-9b1c-c4840741aab0","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3cef7279-73d6-4133-aa5a-203536281c4a [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-12.499999772451451%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] A consultoria StoneX revisou para cima a estimativa de superávit global de cacau na safra 2025/26, projetando um excedente de 247 mil toneladas em meio à recuperação da produção após a quebra registrada em 2023/24 Marri Smith/Pexels

[{"selector":"#anim-95be30b7-5ab7-4376-83b2-a11647bd821f","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6e6436ce-d4e0-426b-ba01-e2a097ebe17a","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-575e9d55-1034-42fb-99b5-0490e6976234","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-296c0afc-900d-43a3-a632-03b4693b91e0","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-17e37c6a-90f0-4e9b-84bd-1f8179398f07 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(7.812499744007886%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Apesar do cenário mais confortável no curto prazo, a empresa alerta para riscos climáticos crescentes que podem limitar esse avanço já no ciclo seguinte Pincalo/Pexels

[{"selector":"#anim-3fb3dfa5-0004-4c01-913a-cca860967409","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6591bbee-61f6-4e9a-a65c-801ea728fa78","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-77aab017-3fa3-4863-91ad-59998a1b77b9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d50e548e-16ae-40dc-a9fc-0b2f5d69a52f","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-68433ecd-964e-4c67-84a7-5371ea864528 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(12.499999772451451%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Segundo o relatório, o mercado deve continuar superavitário em 2026/27, mas com um excedente menor, estimado em 149 mil toneladas. A redução é atribuída, principalmente, à possibilidade de intensificação do fenômeno climático El Niño , que pode afetar a oferta global Valdenilson Santos Bautz Dembautz/Pexels

[{"selector":"#anim-8d6f69ef-0731-47c5-9a65-6ea5078bae07","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-07c1252b-3650-4ed8-acbb-55dd5d5b7a63","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-15ffbe9e-b549-4228-8db1-2b8da788677a","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-fd1a7783-ce8f-4020-a19d-5002dcbf2d3c","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4f14ceba-7c4e-4c9f-a727-b7484de130a8 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-12.499999772451451%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] A produção global segue, em geral, alinhada às expectativas iniciais da consultoria, com clima favorável e bom ritmo de entregas nos principais países produtores. Ajustes pontuais foram feitos em mercados como Equador e Camarões, que apresentaram volumes ligeiramente abaixo Victor Cayke/Pexels

[{"selector":"#anim-27b96535-5416-490e-b43d-bd3c38b26edd","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-91f22b50-f5cb-4f00-889b-9ed13ad21db0","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7e1995cd-2097-4e68-9988-3b28b2283c41","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c462d33b-b066-4f47-ba9f-4a92a3b2a675","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-dce360f0-cbe4-4a60-ad2a-e31930b36b8c [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(39.17410707330221%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] No Brasil, os dados indicam uma recuperação consistente. A produção cresceu 61% no primeiro trimestre de 2026 em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior, sinalizando retomada após a forte quebra de 2023/24 MELQUIZEDEQUE ALMEIDA/Pexels

[{"selector":"#anim-ccdb30ba-31f3-4e19-bfb1-aa4926dfde34","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a295982a-d7a7-4544-897b-c235e3d60c48","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-525e7fae-2c7b-4fe5-b2f9-d78da0c5d91d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5fd97447-37e4-4b7f-a848-679a55c96cd2","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1f37c5fa-8d6f-4681-a478-25c78803e984 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-28.90624987200394%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] O principal fator de atenção para o mercado é a evolução do El Niño a partir do segundo semestre de 2026. Historicamente, o fenômeno reduz a produção global de cacau em cerca de 1,7%, em contraste com o crescimento médio de 2,6% em anos normais Franco Colomba/Pexels

[{"selector":"#anim-e05c7889-0d8f-4017-ad7f-86f951a5f372","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-110823de-bc92-4104-a06f-9b059d38c683","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ea80c3f4-8933-4172-b49a-9dc1aa975d79","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-487f481e-1a6e-44dd-a12e-87608380d711","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8de22e92-da1f-44db-84c2-2ad7336afad3 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(45.47973124864108%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Os impactos variam por região, incluindo maior risco de seca na África Ocidental, estresse hídrico no Brasil e possíveis efeitos mistos na América Latina DANIEL INTUS/Prexels

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[{"selector":"#anim-ebda7b68-769f-4526-a306-ed94013e13ca","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-00bd58bc-8552-4925-ae77-0e764c8459ef","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-cfb8684b-2a21-4270-885b-a155e78f932a","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-03a4b697-8586-4052-8a6a-668d8c904930","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 2132.63615%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-16c627aa-3a2d-4051-b6fc-fe35cb2aab05","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f5f0cd02-fc22-4762-9ace-349e5081b15a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-117.84387%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-39bad4ff-cb24-49e5-9dc8-2c9d83e48a67","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d1a6863d-7afe-4eeb-b7ef-bff76e4f34ad","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 870.06218%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Davi Rosário/Pexels leia mais em