Por que Donald Trump deveria esperar elevada participação eleitoral

[{"selector":"#anim-4629e19c-1399-4444-9779-82020a50f377","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e977deba-e0e2-4efb-a8ad-3a1400d86aa7","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2e1ed32b-08b2-42a0-b158-78f62b6ee554","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-fff75018-239b-4be1-ad71-8dae86c12c1c","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Divulgação/Casa Branca

[{"selector":"#anim-c99a148f-c1f2-417b-b3d4-637d296e8fad","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-62c54587-61b6-427d-bc1a-6bf03a979977","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e69a19e1-49cb-4a9a-b040-4b2edd4ed045","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5a774c0e-f8ef-43a3-9e18-de1873a97bc3","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] O republicano Donald Trump está numa posição melhor contra o democrata Joe Biden agora do que em qualquer momento durante toda a campanha de 2020 REUTERS/Carlos Barria

[{"selector":"#anim-e00007fa-b53b-4d36-874b-5bcfa274795d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1c91dd45-576e-47b8-bd14-98069a1c937c","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a2fd478e-4eac-4585-ba49-0ef310314faf","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a7ab0759-2229-4848-a706-6164588db7ab","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] O ex-presidente lidera contra o atual presidente em mais do que o seu quinhão de pesquisas eleitorais registradas, inclusive em vários estados decisivos REUTERS/Scott Morgan

[{"selector":"#anim-260de492-c363-4509-89d1-087d474b7f56","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-73d76467-d34d-4bc0-a898-00d9383553b9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-57693b7c-4e3e-446a-afd0-f2a3281f8017","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-70b06b25-7f17-4630-8afd-a12196937785","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8cffc8dd-02e2-4e55-8be2-e9eae00d6b44","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d0939d1e-e17c-40a9-a9ec-ad44970b0ab1","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Numa mudança em relação à dinâmica habitual esperada, em que os democratas deveriam ter um melhor desempenho com uma maior participação, Biden poderá se beneficiar quando as sondagens analisarem os prováveis ​​eleitores em vez de todos os eleitores registados REUTERS/Scott Morgan

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[{"selector":"#anim-29adb80a-aea1-43d8-a9d0-904a11b4a5f7","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-1e248bf7-6f5e-4e31-832d-e3df61005fbe","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-46327907-fd5e-4f23-aa85-1883cadf65de","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8cae380d-fff1-4380-af93-2cbe20abe548","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-76070cb0-bb04-4ebe-8304-da9082082f4e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c63d6321-9862-41a6-ba83-e2f9e76d96a4","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Primeiro, Trump tem melhores resultados entre os eleitores negros e hispânicos do que há quatro anos. Como grupo, estes eleitores têm menos probabilidade de ter um diploma universitário do que os eleitores brancos REUTERS/Vincent Alban

[{"selector":"#anim-1dc85ad6-c3b7-447f-bd73-bb23c9a1d9a2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3658b9ce-f946-4ba4-9354-b6d71127dd1d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7dffbd27-f4b9-4e8e-b686-ac852f473aa2","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-65ab350f-5bea-4a0b-a23c-01a526eb22ed","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d058be7f-afcb-4439-be0c-c9b65fe28bb3","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e13fdd01-02a6-48c9-891a-7803b1135878","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Em segundo lugar, Trump está se saindo melhor entre os eleitores negros sem diploma universitário do que entre aqueles com diploma universitário. Enquanto isso, Biden mantém sua força entre os eleitores brancos com diploma universitário REUTERS/Tom Brenner

[{"selector":"#anim-648ebca0-5566-44a2-bdf3-49b0818f8581","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-69102b3c-990d-4446-b9c5-8fc1cfa9cc17","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4f9eb0ca-3f9b-498f-a716-a6357091f15e","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-81feb772-2f0c-4e5d-9ad8-e3b63d7ee0b7","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0081279f-0c86-4246-a07c-6bb5a7781ede","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6be4265f-f1b6-4c96-b89d-89fe8d78e12b","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] Estes fatores combinados estão a aumentar o fosso educativo e a fazer com que Trump tenha um melhor desempenho entre os eleitores que têm menos probabilidades de comparecer como grupo Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

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[{"selector":"#anim-c2669669-14cd-4417-8894-9a32ea015dd2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-306bceb6-4bdc-4671-98a4-77af7a26bc31","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2a6bf2c2-1822-4f60-8bdb-f28e5a8839cb","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5db9fd87-3bea-4670-be75-aadbc53aabaf","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 2132.63615%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-874b668e-8b84-4c62-9086-63dc5aa216e2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-18df7af6-9987-4a04-ab74-f495bf4c37c0","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-117.84387%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ee887151-1be4-4898-845b-8455822da870","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6c252113-ffe6-4cb1-a8cc-c8b8c6c1fe5b","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 867.28444%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons leia mais em